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November 28, 2004 07:15 AM

To Yield A Good Retirement, Get Real, And Work It Out


Excerpt: The idea that you might run out of money in retirement is scary. Fortunately, there is a lot you can do both before and after you stop working. The most important step: Calculate your withdrawal rate, which is the amount you can afford to take out of your mutual funds and other savings.


Millions of workers are counting on mutual funds to help pay their retirement bills, but it will not be easy to make your money last as long as you do.

The idea that you might run out of money in retirement is scary. Fortunately, there is a lot you can do both before and after you stop working.

The most important step: Calculate your withdrawal rate, which is the amount you can afford to take out of your mutual funds and other savings. Only then will you know whether you will have enough to supplement other income sources, like social security and corporate pensions. You will probably find that your safe withdrawal rate is lower than you may have hoped.

Some retirees assume that they can spend the profits they earn on their investments each year. But that approach has problems. What will you live on during a bear market, when your investments may be losing money?

Other retirees settle on a fixed withdrawal rate roughly equal to their portfolio's projected returns. "That's a very dangerous thing to do," said Philip Cooley, professor of finance at Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas.

One reason: The market often generates returns that are significantly different from the long-term averages. Investors who use this withdrawal strategy could see a few years of below-average performance derail their retirement savings plans.

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