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November 26, 2004 08:31 AM

Don't Worry ... Don't Be Happy


Excerpt: Fact is, it's tougher than ever to know for sure. The euphoria surrounding the blockbuster October jobs report earlier this month has quickly faded and has been replaced by concerns about the weakening dollar and rising oil prices.


The economy is great. Wait, it stinks. Uhh. Scratch that.

Fact is, it's tougher than ever to know for sure. The euphoria surrounding the blockbuster October jobs report earlier this month has quickly faded and has been replaced by concerns about the weakening dollar and rising oil prices.

And now investors, who bid up shares sharply before and after the Presidential election, are threatening to take back the gains.

"This whole year has been one of rapid sentiment reversals," said Craig Callahan, president and chief investment officer of ICON Advisers, a mutual fund firm. "For three weeks investors think things are OK and then the next three weeks people think everything is bad."

So have conditions really taken a drastic turn for the worse in just two weeks or is the market being overly skittish?

Several Wall Street watchers think that things aren't nearly as bad as they seem. But many of the same observers also caution that the economy isn't exactly in fantastic shape either.

"We're not in trouble. But at the same time it's quite clear that there is no sign of a sustained pickup in growth in sight," said Anirvan Banerji, director of Research of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "Our conclusion is don't worry, don't be happy."

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